There is the pursuit of real happiness – and then there is the economics of happiness, a Brave New World of artificial well-being to which many deluded scientists have chosen to pin their hopes.
In Aldous Huxley’s masterpiece, soma was the perfect fake happiness drug; it infamously had “all the advantages of Christianity and alcohol; none of their defects”. In the dystopia envisaged by the so-called happiness economists, officials armed with clipboards and regression models would know what makes us happy – a poorer but more egalitarian society.
The seminal article on happiness economics was published by Richard Easterlin, a professor at the University of Southern California, as long ago as 1974. He claimed that average happiness in the US had remained at the same level between 1946 and 1970, despite a doubling of income per head over this period.
More recently, a flood of papers in learned journals have argued the same central thesis: economic growth and increases in income per head do not affect well-being; governments should therefore cease trying to maximise growth in favour of explicitly targeting happiness.
Not to be outdone, David Cameron, the Tory leader, has thrown his weight behind this fad, saying recently: “It’s time we admitted that there’s more to life than money, and it’s time we focused not just on GDP (gross domestic product), but on GWB – general well-being.”
One of the key pieces of evidence that happiness economists rely upon are statistics spanning several decades in various countries showing increasing GDP but happiness flatlining. The reason for this, given by Lord Layard from the London School of Economics, and others, is the persistence of income inequality, which they claim offsets any happiness gained from a larger economy.
Critics put a rather different gloss on the theory, explaining it as follows: people are jealous of the possessions of others, and strive to catch up by taking better jobs or working harder, in turn triggering a commensurate reaction from their rivals. We are all constantly striving to be better than the Joneses; we all are made unhappy as a result; so we should all be forced into greater equality for our own good, with the help of punitive tax rates and red tape.
Analysing the responses of a large number of individuals at a single point in time (say 2007) suggests that while richer people are happier than the poor, the increase in happiness associated with higher income gets progressively smaller. If the difference in happiness between earning £100,000 ($198,557, E147,236) and £1m a year is insignificant, it’s easy to see why some believe this can justify higher taxes on the rich.
But a new book by Helen Johns and Paul Ormerod published by the Institute of Economic Affairs blows apart the arguments of the happiness economics crowd. For a start, happiness is often measured in surveys using a three-point scale. This means it is impossible to measure any increase in happiness for those ticking 3, the highest happiness box – a considerable number of people given that the average score in such surveys tends to be around 2.2.
There is therefore always an upper limit to happiness, compared with no obvious upper limit to GDP, a devastating problem for proponents of happiness economics. The authors also calculate that to obtain a 10% increase in average happiness, 22% of people would, net, have to move up one category, or 11% move up two categories. A substantial share of the population would have to enjoy a significant rise in happiness, confirming that the statistics are biased against detecting any rise in well-being.
The central argument constantly wheeled out is that happiness and economic growth are unconnected; but happiness has in fact no correlation with a large number of other variables that might be expected to affect people’s well-being. Over the last 30 years or so, real public expenditure has risen 50% in Britain and hours worked have fallen by 16% in (West) Germany, while in the US, crime has doubled and then fallen back almost to where it was in 1971, female earnings have grown by 30% relative to male earnings, and overall income inequality has greatly increased. The effect on happiness? None.
Finally, there is a body of research on happiness based on surveys that track changes in specific individuals over time, rather than looking at random samples of people at a single point in time, and compares their levels of happiness. It shows stable family life, being married, good health, religious faith, feelings of living in a cohesive community where people can be trusted, and good governance contribute to happiness; perhaps not unsurprisingly, chronic pain, divorce and bereavement detract from it.
The only role this suggests for governments is to ensure a well-functioning democracy with a large public space for a flourishing civil society. But happiness economics is really little more than an attempt by opponents of economic freedom to bring in state control by the back door. Their doctrine has no proper empirical basis and few worthwhile policies emerge from it.
The US Declaration of Independence did not stipulate that government should ensure that everybody was happy; rather, it gave individuals the right to pursue their own happiness in the best way that they themselves saw fit. Hardly perfect, for sure, but the only way we know.
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