2012 Watchdog: News Release

EMBARGOED until 00:01 Tuesday 11 September 2007

PUBLIC CHANGE THEIR MIND ON 2012: FIRST POLL TO SHOW MOST PEOPLE NOW OPPOSE LONDON OLYMPICS

TWO-THIRDS BELIEVE 2012 GAMES ARE NOT A GOOD INVESTMENT AND ARE NOT WORTH THE RISK

89% THINK THE GAMES WILL GO OVER-BUDGET AND LONDONERS ARE MOST SCEPTICAL

A new poll for The TaxPayers’ Alliance (TPA), released today, shows for the first time that a clear majority of the public are now opposed to the 2012 London Olympic Games.  Coinciding with the Channel 4 Dispatches programme being aired tonight which raises further questions about the cost estimates of the Games, the YouGov poll asked the public to give their views on the financial risk associated with the 2012 Games, their estimate of the likely final bill, and whether they think the games will be a good investment.

Is the risk worth taking?

When YouGov last asked a similar question in 2002  with the estimated cost then of £1.8 billion, there was strong support for the games and almost two thirds (62 per cent) thought the risk was worth taking.  Now, five years later that opinion has completely reversed. Less than a third (28 per cent) agreed that the risk was worth taking, against almost two-thirds (64 per cent) who thought the risk was not worth taking and the money could be better used in other ways:

 

What will be the final bill?

The vast majority – 89 per cent – do not believe the Government’s stated position that the cost of the London games (including the contingency fund) will not be more than £9.35 billion.  Only 3 per cent think that the 2012 Games will be delivered on budget or under budget. 45 per cent expect the final bill to be 60 per cent more than the current budget, £15 billion, and a quarter (26 per cent) expect it to rise even higher – to £20 billion (114 per cent over-budget).  One in ten nationally, and one in seven Londoners think the games will go over-budget by even more with a final bill over £20 billion. 

Would the games be a good investment?

When asked if at the final cost they estimate, the 2012 London Olympics would be a good investment, a clear two-thirds majority (67 per cent) disagree.  Only a fifth think the games represent a good investment, and the number is no higher in London (19 per cent), even though Londoners will benefit most from any regeneration legacy. 

Matthew Elliott, Chief Executive of the TaxPayers' Alliance, said:

“This is the first concrete evidence that the British public has fallen out of love with the 2012 Olympics.  It is beginning to look like people in charge lack the management experience and expertise to deliver the Games on budget. With costs spiralling, the public now believe the risk is not worth taking. Taxpayers should not be forced to write any more blank cheques.”

For further information, please call Blair Gibbs, TaxPayers’ Alliance Campaign Director on 07790 908860 or 0845 330 9554 (blair.gibbs@taxpayersalliance.com)

ENDS

Notes to Editors:

 Established in 2005, The TaxPayers’ Alliance (TPA) is Britain’s independent, grassroots campaign for lower taxes and better government.  Find out more about the TaxPayers' Alliance at our new website: www.taxpayersalliance.com. 

 All figures, unless otherwise stated, are from YouGov Plc.  Total sample size was 2,162 adults. Fieldwork was undertaken between 28th-30th August 2007.  The survey was carried out online. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all GB adults (aged 18+).  YouGov is a member of the British Polling Council.  Further information at www.yougov.com.  The full poll tables are available upon request.

 The 2012 Watchdog is a panel, fronted by two former Olympians, to scrutinise the progress of the London Olympic Games between now and the opening ceremony on Friday 27 July 2012.  The 2012 Watchdog blog, which features regular posts on 2012 and campaign news can be found at www.taxpayersalliance.com/2012

Comments

[Damian Hockney]

Congratulations on this poll. It is of enormous assistance to those who are trying to achieve accountability. The free market anti-regulation One London group on the London Assembly (the body which is supposed to hold the Mayor to account) was the first to point out - in detail over two years ago while the bid was being made - that the Olympic Games would cost £10 billion and that there were absolutely no guarantees of any sustainable new jobs. We were roundly ridiculed by all the other main parties and the Mayor: the general logic was "well, it's bound to create jobs and make money, I mean, you know". We also made the point that the public would dramatically turn against the staging of the Olympic Games once they realised that what we were saying was true. It has clearly happened more quickly than we thought.

No-one has yet disproved our other claim - that so far there has been a net loss of jobs caused by the preparations for 2012, through business closures on the Olympic site at Marshgate Lane, and forced moves which have exported work from boroughs with already the highest unemployment in London. Similarly, that tourism is affected negatively by the modern Olympics, with usual visitors staying away. Again, the official head is firmly buried in the Marshgate sand on this.

On the basis that the real winner is the bidder who comes second, our group alone at the London Assembly strongly supported the Paris bid to stage 2012 in the hope that those who wanted to attend could cross the Channel for the day, rather than go through seven years of rising costs, job losses and hidden spending in addition to the council tax surcharge.

Damian Hockney, Leader, One London Group, London Assembly, City Hall, London SE1 2AA

[GLA Spokesperson]

Far from representing ‘the first concrete evidence that the British public has fallen out of love with the 2012 Olympics’ this leading and inaccurate poll is a shameful attempt to manipulate and misrepresent public opinion.

The Market Research Code of Conduct states that members must take reasonable steps to ensure that respondents are able to answer the question in a way that reflects the view they want to express and that respondents are not led towards a particular answer.

However the questions in your survey hold out promises of lower taxes and investment in education to encourage people to say that the risk is not worth taking. The alternatives they give people are not actual proposals and are clearly designed to obtain a predetermined answer. The questions do not allow people to express their view. In particular, the question on risk has one positive statement which is negatively phrased because it talks of financial risk. And while the question offers one ‘positive’ statement, it offers two negative options, which makes it very likely to obtain an unbalanced result.

The results of this survey sit in start contrast to research carried out on our behalf by MORI in June which shows that 68% of respondents supported the Games as opposed to 23% who were against them.

MORI asked: "In July 2005, the Olympic Committee announced that London will host the 2012 Olympic Games. From what you have seen or heard, do you agree or disagree that the Olympics will be good for London? Is that strongly or tend to agree/disagree?"

Strongly agree 42%
Tend to agree 26%
Neither agree nor disagree 6%
Tend to disagree 8%
Strongly disagree 15%
Don’t know 3%

The MORI question is balanced, allows people to make up their own minds, and does not attempt to influence their answer. The result is therefore likely to be far more representative of people’s actual views.

The Olympic Games are already proving a massive driver for regeneration and investment in London which will benefit Londoners long after 2012.

[Matthew Sinclair]

I'll leave aside questions around the Market Research Code of Conduct. As a client of YouGov - a member of the British Polling Council - this is clearly a matter for them. Needless to say, the Mayor and GLA Spokespeople might like to consider the legal implications of publicly accusing them of a breach. YouGov have been made aware of these comments (and those by the Mayor at his press conference on the 11 September).

This poll question was essentially a repeat of the same poll question agreed and published by YouGov in 2002 at the start of the bid process. Nobody claimed then that the results - largely in favour of the Games - had been distorted.

All YouGov did in our poll was offer options. By contrast, the poll you have commissioned through MORI offers the Olympics or nothing, which implies ignoring opportunity costs; whether the Olympics is worth the money (which could be spent elsewhere). The Olympics could be good for London even if it ended up costing £20 billion (as a quarter of the public estimate) - that does not make it good value for money. Our poll gets at that crucial question, and takes in to account the views of all UK taxpayers - not just residents of London.